The Electric Slide
No sooner did I float the argument that New Hampshire’s Congressional Democrats will benefit from the fact that President Obama’s job approval remains a bit higher here than elsewhere, than the UNH Survey Center comes out with new polling data today showing that the president’s job approval has dropped in the Granite State. Obama’s job approval has hovered in the upper 40s nationally in recent weeks, but my sense has been that he was more likely in the low 50s (51 to 53%ish) in the Granite State. Not a big difference, but as anyone who follows elections closely knows, those few points can translate into a bigger impact in terms of relative electoral strength.
The new UNH poll has Obama’s job approval rating dropping from 55% in October to a new low of 48%. The president took a particularly large hit among independents, where his approval rating is now down to 39%, a circumstance that mirrors a similar drop among independents elsewhere, in places like Virginia, New Jersey, and Massachusetts. It is true that this is just one poll, so it will be helpful when other organizations weigh in with new data, as well. But the question may now be whether this represents the bottom of a trough for Obama (before a rebound), or is there further for him to drop? The answer to this question will have electoral repercussions for Democratic candidates in the state.

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