No Rest for Ovide
11-29-2010
I caught an Ovide Lamontagne interview on WMUR-TV’s Close Up yesterday morning. If the station posts any of the video, I’ll put up a link for you to check out. From what I heard in the interview, it’s pretty clear that Lamontagne is going to run for office again, and my guess is sooner rather than later. Most tellingly, he told host Josh McElveen that he wasn’t interested in chairing the state Republican Party, as that would make his probable consideration of another run awkward for other potential candidates.
 
For which office is Ovide likely to run? My guess is that he’ll run for governor in 2012, especially if John Lynch doesn’t seek a fifth term in office. Lamontagne could wait to challenge Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen in 2014, but four years is a lifetime in the current world of volatile partisan swings at the ballot box. Of the next two election cycles, 2012 is thus more likely to be a Republican year, especially if the economy continues to only improve slowly.
 
Also, I think Shaheen would be a more difficult politician to unseat than any Democrat the party might put up for governor in two years. She is not easily pigeonholed on the left in the way that Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter were, and she has a lot of the same crossover appeal as other long-time, high-profile politicians in the state like Lynch and retiring Republican Senator Judd Gregg. So, while Ovide may find the national platform of a U.S. Senate seat to be the more alluring option (although he was vague about his preference), the governorship seems to be a more logical and immediate outlet for his political ambitions.
 
Note: Back posting on Wednesday. -Dean

Comments:


Posted On: 11-30-2010 09:05:22 by Jim Splaine
I agree with your assessment and I think Ovide Lamontagne will run for Governor. He'll be a tough candidate. Personally I like him, and I'm a Democrat, and I expect he will draw a number of voters from all sides, despite his very partisan and conservative views. I'll be helping and supporting any of the number of potential Democratic Party candidates if John Lynch doesn't run again -- Terie Norelli, Maggie Hassan, Mark Connolly, Steve Marchand, Jim Normand. We have lots of great possibilities. I think he could have won the September 14th primary for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination if he had run his campaign just a little differently. Campaign techniques do matter, and having "Ovide" on your signs instead of you entire name assumes a lot about your name recognition -- I think he lost some votes there. And he needed to start his surge a week before Labor Day, not the day after.


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