Is There Still Momentum to be Had?
02-11-2008
I recently wrote a post suggesting that fears about momentum effects and a frontloaded schedule prematurely anointing party nominees were largely unfounded. Victory in early primaries and caucuses did not translate into unstoppable momentum and a free ticket to the convention for any of the frontrunners this time around, especially among the Democratic contenders.
 
But, Barack Obama now has the potential to win 10 consecutive contests in February. The question is whether such a string of victories would generate any traditional momentum effects for him heading into the big contests in Texas and Ohio on March 4th. The Clinton campaign views these states, taken together, as a critical firewall for protecting Hillary Clinton’s path to the nomination. They could, in theory, provide Clinton with sufficient delegate totals to keep her competitive, even after multiple losses in February.
 
So, I am curious to see whether these victories (if achieved) provide Obama with new momentum sufficient to alter the pro-Clinton dynamic typically posited for Texas and Ohio. Given what we have seen so far in this electoral cycle, I am interested to hear whether you think there is still momentum to be had.


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